Hello savvy sports investors, now I’m going to unveil an intriguing hockey betting strategy I call”The NHL Streak Breaker Play”. It basically answers the intuitive question I asked myself some time ago:
Taking into consideration the public’s tendency to overreact to recent results, if we bet on teams that are currently on a losing streak confronting a team riding a winning streak (in the NHL)?
Let us see if we could gain from this suggestion!
1. Standard Exploration
First of all, you should notice that the results presented in this article come from a dataset containing information about all NHL games in the nine (9) seasons covering the 2007/2008 into 2015/2016 period.
Let’s kick this off research with a very straightforward analysis: we are betting $1 to every team coming off at least one reduction playing against a team coming off at least one win. Here are the results:
Record = 2533-2767 (win percentage = 47.8%)
Profit = -$202.16 (ROI = Return On Investment = -3.8percent )
To place these numbers in perspective, just how much money could we have won or lost from using the opposite approach (i.e. gambling on groups coming off at least win confronting a team coming off at least one loss)? The answer is: -$181.43 (-3.4%). As you can see, the first suggested strategy is not doing any better than the other strategy. We are not off to a fantastic start, but please hang because the sun is going to shine!
From today on, I will use odds with”reduced juice”. In my dataset, when two groups were evenly matched the juice was 20 pennies (for example -110 versus -110 in American structure, that is the equivalent of 1.91 lines in decimal format). That isn’t representative of the reality as you’re able to obtain much greater chances simply by playing sportsbooks such as Pinnacle or 5Dimes. Also, in case you have an account with numerous bookies you may become even better odds by searching for the ideal line. Consequently, I have adjusted chances in my dataset so we are now getting -105 lines (1.95 in decimal format) when both groups are equally likely to win the match.
With decreased juice, the profit amounts above become -$100.95 (-1.9%) when betting the group on a losing streak versus -$89.98 (-1.7%) when gambling the group on a winning streak.
2. Length of this Winning and Losing Streaks
All right, let us now refine our analysis to find out whether we can find a winning approach. But first I’d like to introduce a little bit of notation to simplify the writing for the remainder of this report:
W = number of matches from the winning streak L = number of games from the streak Teams W teams coming off at least one win
Teams L = teams coming at least one reduction Let’s study the performance of the proposed strategy both as a function of”w” and”l”. Ideally, we’d like to see our winnings increase as both of these factors go up. In plain English, are we making more money when backing a team on a big losing streak facing a team on a major winning streak?
Let’s start by focusing exclusively on the performance of the proposed strategy as a role of”w”, the number of consecutive wins by the group We’re gambling against, also called”fading”
Read more here: http://wpstaging.digipace.net/?p=57546